NFI Award of the Week
...and the winner is Larry Baldcock - United (no) Future
United Future transport policy announced
Friday, 1 April 2005, 3:50 pm
Press Release: United Future NZ Party Media statement
United Future transport policy announced
Greater transparency in road funding, the ultimate four-laning of State Highway 1 from Kaitaia to Invercargill, the possible splitting-out of traffic functions from the police force, and driver education in schools are all significant features of United Future’s transport policies for the next election.
Transport spokesman, Larry Baldock, announced the policy at today’s annual meeting of the Automobile Association in Napier today.
Mr Baldock said the party was also committed to the continued construction of the strategic roading networks in Auckland, Tauranga and Wellington (including the Transmission Gully project.)
Ends
Thursday, March 31, 2005
Wednesday, March 30, 2005
Another gem from Jim Kunstlers Clusterfuck Nation Chronicle
After the convulsion of Word War Two, we went back to confidently marshalling our resources with a vengence. We took all that oil, all the mineral wealth, the raw land, the timber, and other riches and directed it into the dubious-but-profitable project of building a suburban utopia.
We're now in the final act of the industrial pageant, a few minutes to curtain. The Long Emergency that we're about to enter as the world passes the all-time oil production peak will be about the depletion and scarcity of things we used to have in plentitude: energy, electricity, food, water, minerals, with a new crisis of money and credit like a cherry on top. ...
After the convulsion of Word War Two, we went back to confidently marshalling our resources with a vengence. We took all that oil, all the mineral wealth, the raw land, the timber, and other riches and directed it into the dubious-but-profitable project of building a suburban utopia.
We're now in the final act of the industrial pageant, a few minutes to curtain. The Long Emergency that we're about to enter as the world passes the all-time oil production peak will be about the depletion and scarcity of things we used to have in plentitude: energy, electricity, food, water, minerals, with a new crisis of money and credit like a cherry on top. ...
Tuesday, March 22, 2005
The Endless Supply of Oil and Other Fairy Tales
Common bloviated pigeon-chesting by those that believe our drive-by fantasyland will continue ad-infinitum include the following claims;
• Ho hum, heard it all in the 70’s
• Peak oil = chickenlittlism
• The stone age didn’t end because we ran out of stone
• OPEC could simply pump more oil if they wished
• The world is awash in oil
• The market will provide
Obvious logical fallacies aside the final statement has some credibility; we suspect the market will provide with rickshaws and bicycles being high on the demand list.
The point is that the mutterers of such slaver never seem able to offer any coherent argument as to how it is that the price of oil is 400% higher than it was in 1999. Nor can anyone point to the seemingly endless reserves [1] that are said to exist to meet ballooning demand. Certainly in regard to supply and demand within the oil market the empirical facts speak for themselves. None of the hubristic rants inclusive of any of the above bullet points or not, have yet been able to cool the market back to US$11bbl.
Further, all new production due to come online over the next year or two is likely to be offset by existing depletion running close to 2Mbpd per year (ExxonMobil confirm their fields are depleting at 4-6% per year) combined with existing strong demand growth [2].
Although the peak oil model is instrumentally reliable, it has been verified in all oil field production data most visibly in fields that are now in decline since it’s inception in the US in 1971, the actual peak oil date to some extent is largely irrelevant once available supply is surpassed by demand. The debate whether the peak oil model is “true” or “real” or not is orthogonal to the present demand/supply issue. You can happily ignore peak oil at the moment, but you can’t ignore the probability that demand is outstripping supply.
Nevertheless it is a simple observable fact that the peak oil model is descriptively accurate in regard to the oil production cycle. Normative appeals to market principles or human ingenuity do not change geological facts. Furthermore advances in technology serve only to exploit oil reserves at a quicker rate but surely depleting resources at a quicker rate does not solve the depletion problem. The market may well provide, we can be sure it won’t be providing cheap oil, even the flat-earthers are beginning to reluctantly concede this point.
The recent “Hirsh Report”[3] to US Department of Energy describes the economic, social and political costs of peak oil as unprecedented. Hirsh in fact questions the ability of the market to provide adequate solutions. The report looks at the Peak Oil problem from a risk management perspective, Hirsh contending that dealing with Peak Oil will cost trillions of dollars and require years of intense effort. Transitioning to a more fuel-efficient national automobile fleet for example is expected to take more than a decade.
Yet in respect of Peak Oil, from our Government we hear a divine silence. We go about building more roads and infrastructure, we make predictions about how well the economy will do next year, and the year after. The Government has ignored peak oil’s warning signals; many other political parties are equally ignorant.
According to recent analysis on Aljazeera’s web site (Oil Prices Confound Experts, Adam Porter) industry analysts and other “experts” are befuddled by the fact that the price hasn’t fallen. "OPEC isn't running fast enough to meet this train of demand that's growing without any sign of a slowdown," said Gal Luft, executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security in Washington.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), bastion of positivism, beholder of distended technological hubris are showing signs of worry. This warning was issued by the IEA last Friday, “The reality is that oil consumption has caught up with installed crude and refining capacity," the Paris-based agency said. "If supply continues to struggle to keep up, more policy attention may come to be directed at oil demand intensity in our economies and alternatives”[4]. This revelation comes on the back of upward demand growth and downward discovery adjustments made by the IEA earlier this year.
The typically ultra-optimistic IEA, panderer to neo-classic economic dogma while powerless to do anything about oil price volatility, seem to be suggesting that a crisis is almost upon us. If as Hirsh suggests changeovers will cost (at least in New Zealand terms) many billions of dollars and take a decade or so implement we are likely to see the emergence of serious oil induced problems quite soon. Hirsh cites higher oil prices and oil price volatility as advance signs of peak. The final warning signals are now imminent.
Yet the cavalry is not appearing on the horizon. Evidence is emerging that Saudi Arabia are simply unable to increase production. There have been marked declines in monthly production figures from the peninsula since the end of 2004. If this turns out to be the case and Saudi has peaked then according to Matt Simmons [5] the world has peaked.
A similar scenario faces the FSU. Production figure declines have persisted for several months running. It is progressively evident that production increases both within OPEC and non-OPEC states will prove increasingly difficult to maintain. The limits are being reached.
No, the Stone Age didn’t end because we ran out of stone; we found something better, we replaced stone with iron but this transition took centuries. This time according to Dr Hirsh we have about a decade if we are lucky and a replacement for oil is yet to be identified.
Those disbelievers who feel the need to ridicule the peak oil story ought consider this. If by hallucination or some stretch of the imagination we turn out to be wrong then we merely look silly. However if the detractors are wrong, if the fountain of eternal energy, whatever that might be, is not found soon then the western civilisation we all know and love, contingently reliant upon oil to feed, clothe, house and medicate itself is about to end.
[1]. In 2004 the total world discovery of oil was 7Gb (a total of 3 months or so supply on the world market). 2Gb were in deep-water finds and the cost of exploration alone (not including development and production) exceeded the current net present value of the oil discovered. The world consumed 30Billion+ barrels of oil in 2004. Economies of scale are disappearing as the oil found is spread across greater numbers of increasingly smaller fields. Source – Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Natural Gas, Newsletter #50, February 2005.
[2] IEA report demand growth running at 2.2%, other reports suggest 3%+ is a more realistic figure.
[3]. The Hirsh Report Executive Summary (and link to the full report) is available at www.energybulletin.net/4638.html
[4]Financial Times, Mar 11, 2005. news.ft.com/cms/s/f20cfb8a-920d-11d9-bca5-00000e2511c8.html
[5] Matt Simmons, Founder and Chairman of the worlds largest energy investment bank, Simmons and Co. International. Advisor to the 2001 Bush-Cheney Energy Task Force.
Steve McKinlay
PowerLess NZ
The rigour of science requires that we distinguish well the undraped figure of nature itself from the gay-coloured vesture with which we clothe it at our pleasure.
Heinrich Hertz, 1895
Common bloviated pigeon-chesting by those that believe our drive-by fantasyland will continue ad-infinitum include the following claims;
• Ho hum, heard it all in the 70’s
• Peak oil = chickenlittlism
• The stone age didn’t end because we ran out of stone
• OPEC could simply pump more oil if they wished
• The world is awash in oil
• The market will provide
Obvious logical fallacies aside the final statement has some credibility; we suspect the market will provide with rickshaws and bicycles being high on the demand list.
The point is that the mutterers of such slaver never seem able to offer any coherent argument as to how it is that the price of oil is 400% higher than it was in 1999. Nor can anyone point to the seemingly endless reserves [1] that are said to exist to meet ballooning demand. Certainly in regard to supply and demand within the oil market the empirical facts speak for themselves. None of the hubristic rants inclusive of any of the above bullet points or not, have yet been able to cool the market back to US$11bbl.
Further, all new production due to come online over the next year or two is likely to be offset by existing depletion running close to 2Mbpd per year (ExxonMobil confirm their fields are depleting at 4-6% per year) combined with existing strong demand growth [2].
Although the peak oil model is instrumentally reliable, it has been verified in all oil field production data most visibly in fields that are now in decline since it’s inception in the US in 1971, the actual peak oil date to some extent is largely irrelevant once available supply is surpassed by demand. The debate whether the peak oil model is “true” or “real” or not is orthogonal to the present demand/supply issue. You can happily ignore peak oil at the moment, but you can’t ignore the probability that demand is outstripping supply.
Nevertheless it is a simple observable fact that the peak oil model is descriptively accurate in regard to the oil production cycle. Normative appeals to market principles or human ingenuity do not change geological facts. Furthermore advances in technology serve only to exploit oil reserves at a quicker rate but surely depleting resources at a quicker rate does not solve the depletion problem. The market may well provide, we can be sure it won’t be providing cheap oil, even the flat-earthers are beginning to reluctantly concede this point.
The recent “Hirsh Report”[3] to US Department of Energy describes the economic, social and political costs of peak oil as unprecedented. Hirsh in fact questions the ability of the market to provide adequate solutions. The report looks at the Peak Oil problem from a risk management perspective, Hirsh contending that dealing with Peak Oil will cost trillions of dollars and require years of intense effort. Transitioning to a more fuel-efficient national automobile fleet for example is expected to take more than a decade.
Yet in respect of Peak Oil, from our Government we hear a divine silence. We go about building more roads and infrastructure, we make predictions about how well the economy will do next year, and the year after. The Government has ignored peak oil’s warning signals; many other political parties are equally ignorant.
According to recent analysis on Aljazeera’s web site (Oil Prices Confound Experts, Adam Porter) industry analysts and other “experts” are befuddled by the fact that the price hasn’t fallen. "OPEC isn't running fast enough to meet this train of demand that's growing without any sign of a slowdown," said Gal Luft, executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security in Washington.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), bastion of positivism, beholder of distended technological hubris are showing signs of worry. This warning was issued by the IEA last Friday, “The reality is that oil consumption has caught up with installed crude and refining capacity," the Paris-based agency said. "If supply continues to struggle to keep up, more policy attention may come to be directed at oil demand intensity in our economies and alternatives”[4]. This revelation comes on the back of upward demand growth and downward discovery adjustments made by the IEA earlier this year.
The typically ultra-optimistic IEA, panderer to neo-classic economic dogma while powerless to do anything about oil price volatility, seem to be suggesting that a crisis is almost upon us. If as Hirsh suggests changeovers will cost (at least in New Zealand terms) many billions of dollars and take a decade or so implement we are likely to see the emergence of serious oil induced problems quite soon. Hirsh cites higher oil prices and oil price volatility as advance signs of peak. The final warning signals are now imminent.
Yet the cavalry is not appearing on the horizon. Evidence is emerging that Saudi Arabia are simply unable to increase production. There have been marked declines in monthly production figures from the peninsula since the end of 2004. If this turns out to be the case and Saudi has peaked then according to Matt Simmons [5] the world has peaked.
A similar scenario faces the FSU. Production figure declines have persisted for several months running. It is progressively evident that production increases both within OPEC and non-OPEC states will prove increasingly difficult to maintain. The limits are being reached.
No, the Stone Age didn’t end because we ran out of stone; we found something better, we replaced stone with iron but this transition took centuries. This time according to Dr Hirsh we have about a decade if we are lucky and a replacement for oil is yet to be identified.
Those disbelievers who feel the need to ridicule the peak oil story ought consider this. If by hallucination or some stretch of the imagination we turn out to be wrong then we merely look silly. However if the detractors are wrong, if the fountain of eternal energy, whatever that might be, is not found soon then the western civilisation we all know and love, contingently reliant upon oil to feed, clothe, house and medicate itself is about to end.
[1]. In 2004 the total world discovery of oil was 7Gb (a total of 3 months or so supply on the world market). 2Gb were in deep-water finds and the cost of exploration alone (not including development and production) exceeded the current net present value of the oil discovered. The world consumed 30Billion+ barrels of oil in 2004. Economies of scale are disappearing as the oil found is spread across greater numbers of increasingly smaller fields. Source – Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Natural Gas, Newsletter #50, February 2005.
[2] IEA report demand growth running at 2.2%, other reports suggest 3%+ is a more realistic figure.
[3]. The Hirsh Report Executive Summary (and link to the full report) is available at www.energybulletin.net/4638.html
[4]Financial Times, Mar 11, 2005. news.ft.com/cms/s/f20cfb8a-920d-11d9-bca5-00000e2511c8.html
[5] Matt Simmons, Founder and Chairman of the worlds largest energy investment bank, Simmons and Co. International. Advisor to the 2001 Bush-Cheney Energy Task Force.
Steve McKinlay
PowerLess NZ
Monday, March 07, 2005
Letter to Wellington City Councillors re V8 SuperCar Race Planned for Wellington
Alick Shaw; Andy Foster; Bryan Pepperell; celia.wade-brown@wcc.govt.nz; Hayley Wain; Helene Ritchie; Jack Ruben; Kerry.Prendergast@wcc.govt.nz; Rob Goulden; Robert Armstrong; Stephanie Cook
Dear Councillors,
Last week the price of oil again moved beyond US$55 per barrel. This is a 400% increase in the price since 1998 (when it hovered around US$11).This represents a clear trend. Several sources ranging from Venezuela'sPresident Chavez, OPEC's Secretary General (who predicts US$80 perbarrel oil within a year or two) to increasing numbers of geologists,industry analysts and scientists are all singing the same song. Cheap oil is finished and Peak oil is just around the corner. At the time of peak oil production, global demand will surpass the available supply.
Please note. We are NOT running out of oil overnight. We are simply reaching the point where increased production will not be possible. Oil is not an endless resource - there are limits. OPEC's president Purnomo Yusgiantoro is on record as saying last year "there is no more supply."
Dr Robert Hirsh (Consultant to the US DoE) warned last week, "The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and,without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented."
Dr Colin Campbell of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Natural Gas warns "The actual decline of oil will be gradual at less than three percent a year: such that the production of all liquid hydrocarbons in 2020 will have fallen to approximately what it was in 1990. In those terms, it does not appear to be a particularly serious situation. But in reality, it is a devastating development because it implies that the oil-based economy is in permanent terminal decline,removing the confidence in perpetual growth on which the Financial System depends." Dr Campbell predicts peak in conventional oil in 2006 (next year) http://www.peakoil.net
With the US "spring driving season" approaching my bet would be we'll see oil move beyond US$60 a barrel within a few weeks.
Apart from at least one notable exception (that I know of) WellingtonCity Councillors, amongst many others, seem to be unable to distinguish reality from illusion. This is unsurprising behaviour from those in power who it seems would uphold a wilful blind illusion of "business as usual", such that continued extraction of support from traditional constituencies occurs rather than facing the harder reality - the economic, social and political fall out that will occur as oil supply is increasingly unable to meet global demand. I suggest people would prefer the truth.
Moving forward with plans for a V8 Street car race without giving this particular issue serious consideration smacks of pitiable ignorance and sheer lack of accountability. Once you verify that the above information is credible, reliable and valid - to continue with your plans for a V8 supercar race is morally culpable.
Politicians both local and national who continue to ignore this issue will eventually be held accountable.
Steve.
Alick Shaw; Andy Foster; Bryan Pepperell; celia.wade-brown@wcc.govt.nz; Hayley Wain; Helene Ritchie; Jack Ruben; Kerry.Prendergast@wcc.govt.nz; Rob Goulden; Robert Armstrong; Stephanie Cook
Dear Councillors,
Last week the price of oil again moved beyond US$55 per barrel. This is a 400% increase in the price since 1998 (when it hovered around US$11).This represents a clear trend. Several sources ranging from Venezuela'sPresident Chavez, OPEC's Secretary General (who predicts US$80 perbarrel oil within a year or two) to increasing numbers of geologists,industry analysts and scientists are all singing the same song. Cheap oil is finished and Peak oil is just around the corner. At the time of peak oil production, global demand will surpass the available supply.
Please note. We are NOT running out of oil overnight. We are simply reaching the point where increased production will not be possible. Oil is not an endless resource - there are limits. OPEC's president Purnomo Yusgiantoro is on record as saying last year "there is no more supply."
Dr Robert Hirsh (Consultant to the US DoE) warned last week, "The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and,without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented."
Dr Colin Campbell of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Natural Gas warns "The actual decline of oil will be gradual at less than three percent a year: such that the production of all liquid hydrocarbons in 2020 will have fallen to approximately what it was in 1990. In those terms, it does not appear to be a particularly serious situation. But in reality, it is a devastating development because it implies that the oil-based economy is in permanent terminal decline,removing the confidence in perpetual growth on which the Financial System depends." Dr Campbell predicts peak in conventional oil in 2006 (next year) http://www.peakoil.net
With the US "spring driving season" approaching my bet would be we'll see oil move beyond US$60 a barrel within a few weeks.
Apart from at least one notable exception (that I know of) WellingtonCity Councillors, amongst many others, seem to be unable to distinguish reality from illusion. This is unsurprising behaviour from those in power who it seems would uphold a wilful blind illusion of "business as usual", such that continued extraction of support from traditional constituencies occurs rather than facing the harder reality - the economic, social and political fall out that will occur as oil supply is increasingly unable to meet global demand. I suggest people would prefer the truth.
Moving forward with plans for a V8 Street car race without giving this particular issue serious consideration smacks of pitiable ignorance and sheer lack of accountability. Once you verify that the above information is credible, reliable and valid - to continue with your plans for a V8 supercar race is morally culpable.
Politicians both local and national who continue to ignore this issue will eventually be held accountable.
Steve.
Thursday, March 03, 2005
NFI Award of the Week
New Zealand Customs Minister Rick Barker quoted on the recent petrol tax hike;
I wonder if Rick Barker could pass Level 1 of NCEA Maths? The price of oil is more volatile since the 1970s and the price has risen almost 400% since 1998. This comment is indicative of the level of competancy our Government brings to this issue. (Not Yet Competent!)
Rick Barker you are an idiot!
(in 1998 oil traded at US$11 - today the price settled around US$55, a percentage difference of around 400%).
New Zealand Customs Minister Rick Barker quoted on the recent petrol tax hike;
petrol prices have fallen and oil prices stabilised, making April 1 a suitable date to bring in the extra charge
I wonder if Rick Barker could pass Level 1 of NCEA Maths? The price of oil is more volatile since the 1970s and the price has risen almost 400% since 1998. This comment is indicative of the level of competancy our Government brings to this issue. (Not Yet Competent!)
Rick Barker you are an idiot!
(in 1998 oil traded at US$11 - today the price settled around US$55, a percentage difference of around 400%).
Wednesday, March 02, 2005
Petrol Tax: The real reason for the hike.
Although I tend to shy away from this sort of speculation - I'd like to propose a conspiracy theory.
Our Government is well aware of Peak Oil, the fact that sometime within the next few short years global maximum peak oil production will occur after which demand will exceed the available supply sending prices skyrocketing well beyond US$100bbl, oil production will begin an inevitable and permanent decline, with depletion figures in excess of 2-3% per year, resulting in mass global oil shortages, more resource conflict, social chaos, economic calamity, probable closure of the Warehouse meaning you'll have to do without your plastic toilet seats, fishing rods and cheap wetsuits from China.
Thus the 5% Petrol Tax is an underhanded market signal. A signal that alternatives need to be developed to our energy hungry, drive in utopia, suburban McMansion, recreational shopping lifestyles. The petrol tax is a dissuasion to you purchasing that obese black V8 SUV you had your eye on. It is a signal to the market to use alternatives such as rail transport, rickshaws and Goggomobils.
The revenue gathered from the new petrol tax will NOT infact be spent on thousands of kilometres of roading, a complete and utter waste of resources, a piteous investment in an infrastructure that has absolutely no future. In actual fact the Government gives a toss about whinging Aucklander's and their boring traffic congestion problems as much as the rest of us - Change the record Aucklander's. The rest of NZ is not interested - we are sick of your complaining, you choose to live there - suck it up.
You're worried about economic growth - in a few years, once surplus oil supply is well and truely history there will be no more economic growth. Economic growth depends on growing energy supplies. That growth is all but over. Make no mistake, as energy declines so will the economy.
So, instead of the petrol tax being spend on roads, the surplus will be spent on developing sustainable cities with energy efficient transit solutions, importing rickshaws from China obviously, reconditioning scooters and Cub Commuters.
Motorists, SUV lovers and the AA, be prepared for more motoring related rude awakenings. This is a warning especially directed at those perverted obese egotistical consumers living in recreational shoppers fantasyland. Global warming, gas guzzling V8 SUVs drivers are in for a fright as their registration fees quadruple, this will be an incentive to get over your egos, lose some weight and get on your bike. This contrary to what the Government and the media will tell you is NOT so that spagetti junction can be sorted, but so that more rickshaws can be imported, the railway system can be improved and some kind of meaningful more efficient transport system can be developed that doesn't involve overweight mothers (that according to Helen Clarke should be at work anyway) driving their chubby kids 400 metres down the road to school in V8 4WDs.
Cast your mind back to the chaos and mayhem, not to mention downright violence and aggression at the petrol pump back in the heady "carless days" era. SUV drivers had better sign up to martial arts class. There is gonna be some nasty irritation at you lot.
The funniest thing of all is that the Government blindly following the IEA's assurances, consumers blissfully living in lala land whilst driving their Jeep Cherokee's to the Warehouse on Saturday morning all the time munching on Double Whoppers with cheese are all unaware of the events unfolding before our very eyes.
Oil has increased 300% since 1999 - and it's headed higher. Why, there is no more supply for demand growth. Without cheap oil, the only safe option is to start dismantling our complex economies
A couple of years then it's Game Over!
Petrol Tax - it's just a warmup - get used to it.
"Some people have wacky ideas,” the new Republican campaign ad alleges. “Like taxing gasoline more so people drive less."
Although I tend to shy away from this sort of speculation - I'd like to propose a conspiracy theory.
Our Government is well aware of Peak Oil, the fact that sometime within the next few short years global maximum peak oil production will occur after which demand will exceed the available supply sending prices skyrocketing well beyond US$100bbl, oil production will begin an inevitable and permanent decline, with depletion figures in excess of 2-3% per year, resulting in mass global oil shortages, more resource conflict, social chaos, economic calamity, probable closure of the Warehouse meaning you'll have to do without your plastic toilet seats, fishing rods and cheap wetsuits from China.
Thus the 5% Petrol Tax is an underhanded market signal. A signal that alternatives need to be developed to our energy hungry, drive in utopia, suburban McMansion, recreational shopping lifestyles. The petrol tax is a dissuasion to you purchasing that obese black V8 SUV you had your eye on. It is a signal to the market to use alternatives such as rail transport, rickshaws and Goggomobils.
The revenue gathered from the new petrol tax will NOT infact be spent on thousands of kilometres of roading, a complete and utter waste of resources, a piteous investment in an infrastructure that has absolutely no future. In actual fact the Government gives a toss about whinging Aucklander's and their boring traffic congestion problems as much as the rest of us - Change the record Aucklander's. The rest of NZ is not interested - we are sick of your complaining, you choose to live there - suck it up.
You're worried about economic growth - in a few years, once surplus oil supply is well and truely history there will be no more economic growth. Economic growth depends on growing energy supplies. That growth is all but over. Make no mistake, as energy declines so will the economy.
So, instead of the petrol tax being spend on roads, the surplus will be spent on developing sustainable cities with energy efficient transit solutions, importing rickshaws from China obviously, reconditioning scooters and Cub Commuters.
Motorists, SUV lovers and the AA, be prepared for more motoring related rude awakenings. This is a warning especially directed at those perverted obese egotistical consumers living in recreational shoppers fantasyland. Global warming, gas guzzling V8 SUVs drivers are in for a fright as their registration fees quadruple, this will be an incentive to get over your egos, lose some weight and get on your bike. This contrary to what the Government and the media will tell you is NOT so that spagetti junction can be sorted, but so that more rickshaws can be imported, the railway system can be improved and some kind of meaningful more efficient transport system can be developed that doesn't involve overweight mothers (that according to Helen Clarke should be at work anyway) driving their chubby kids 400 metres down the road to school in V8 4WDs.
Cast your mind back to the chaos and mayhem, not to mention downright violence and aggression at the petrol pump back in the heady "carless days" era. SUV drivers had better sign up to martial arts class. There is gonna be some nasty irritation at you lot.
The funniest thing of all is that the Government blindly following the IEA's assurances, consumers blissfully living in lala land whilst driving their Jeep Cherokee's to the Warehouse on Saturday morning all the time munching on Double Whoppers with cheese are all unaware of the events unfolding before our very eyes.
Oil has increased 300% since 1999 - and it's headed higher. Why, there is no more supply for demand growth. Without cheap oil, the only safe option is to start dismantling our complex economies
A couple of years then it's Game Over!
Petrol Tax - it's just a warmup - get used to it.
Tuesday, March 01, 2005
NZ Politicians Inflicted with Acute Stupidity
It may be lost on some people that a rise in the price of oil of almost 300% since 1999 is a trend. It's a trend that won't go away.
New Zealand politicians of almost all persuasions (with the possible exclusion of the Green Party) continue to bang on about how the current high price of oil is an abbertation. That prices this year some time will return to normal levels.
In fact the NZ Government with it's swollen luddite head firmly placed deep in the sand still believes that oil will return to around US$20 per barrel, that economic growth and increased oil supply will continue forever and that the best thing at present for the NZ economy is to spend a few billion dollars on more roads.
This from the last Energy Supply and Demand Projections - Ministry of Economic Development.
"Oil prices rising from US$20/bbl in 2004 to US$25/bbl by 2020 and constant thereafter; "
The current price of oil at the time of this posting was US$51
Meanwhile our politicians are arguing and bickering with one another like a rabble of retarded galah's as to how we ought to spend billions on more roads to solve our congestion problems. The solution to all our woes so it seems is to continue to invest in infrastructure that has absolutely no future.
Matt Simmons informs us that world demand for oil is currently about 82 Million barrels per day. It is exceedingly unlikely that any of the key oil producers, Venezuela, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Russia the US or the UK can increase production. In fact many are already beyond peak production.
The SIMPLE FACT lost on our idiotic politicians is that oil demand is very close if not at total maximum global supply. Lack of capacity exists right across the supply chain, from the well-head to refinery.
If oil demand grows at the same rate this year as it did last - we have perhaps a year or two left of happy go lucky drive-in utopia.
Meanwhile our fuckwit politicians are screwing our future down the drain assuming that happy-clappy economic growth will continue forever and ever - they are wasting billions of our dollars flushing them down the toilet by building white elephants highways to nowhere.
When will these dickheads wake up?
It may be lost on some people that a rise in the price of oil of almost 300% since 1999 is a trend. It's a trend that won't go away.
New Zealand politicians of almost all persuasions (with the possible exclusion of the Green Party) continue to bang on about how the current high price of oil is an abbertation. That prices this year some time will return to normal levels.
In fact the NZ Government with it's swollen luddite head firmly placed deep in the sand still believes that oil will return to around US$20 per barrel, that economic growth and increased oil supply will continue forever and that the best thing at present for the NZ economy is to spend a few billion dollars on more roads.
This from the last Energy Supply and Demand Projections - Ministry of Economic Development.
"Oil prices rising from US$20/bbl in 2004 to US$25/bbl by 2020 and constant thereafter; "
The current price of oil at the time of this posting was US$51
Meanwhile our politicians are arguing and bickering with one another like a rabble of retarded galah's as to how we ought to spend billions on more roads to solve our congestion problems. The solution to all our woes so it seems is to continue to invest in infrastructure that has absolutely no future.
Matt Simmons informs us that world demand for oil is currently about 82 Million barrels per day. It is exceedingly unlikely that any of the key oil producers, Venezuela, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Russia the US or the UK can increase production. In fact many are already beyond peak production.
The SIMPLE FACT lost on our idiotic politicians is that oil demand is very close if not at total maximum global supply. Lack of capacity exists right across the supply chain, from the well-head to refinery.
If oil demand grows at the same rate this year as it did last - we have perhaps a year or two left of happy go lucky drive-in utopia.
Meanwhile our fuckwit politicians are screwing our future down the drain assuming that happy-clappy economic growth will continue forever and ever - they are wasting billions of our dollars flushing them down the toilet by building white elephants highways to nowhere.
When will these dickheads wake up?
Monday, February 28, 2005
Wednesday, February 16, 2005
NZ Ecomagazine
A new magazine that is about the be released - this week or next I think, watch out for it.
Anyway, they have invited me to write an article. I thought I'd publish the first couple of paragraphs, I like them. It's supposed to be about Peak Oil but I got carried away with myself. Comments welcome - if anyone reads this godforsaken blog.
edited 18th Feb
The End of The Age of Reason
The fundamental promise at the dawn of the 20th century was the democratisation of modernity. The ideology of modernity prescribes rational thought as the ultimate liberator informing us to the truth about the world and ourselves. The road to progress therefore would be one built upon true knowledge, knowledge informed by science and logic, free from superstition, dogma and ignorance. And lets face it science delivered, not only did it put men on the moon but it laid the foundation for our modern all-mod-cons way of life. The last century upon the foundations of science and logic was one characterised by great technological advancement. We have become accustomed to the belief consequently, that there are technological solutions to all our problems, we like to call this human ingenuity.
However the 21st century dawns under the spectre of an ever-increasing pluralism. Science and rationalism is in decline in favour of baneful individualism. The sciences popularly perceived as irrelevant by students and laymen are retreating into their respective labs and philosophy departments, in favour of a kind of pop-cultural post-modern relativism. In the wake of this retreat we are left with all manner of popular worldviews that by and large freely evolve within the democratized slurry of our suburban malls, determined by our SUV driven, recreational shopping lifestyles, mostly devoid of any rationality, selected for consumption by a corporatist media intent and dependant upon perpetuating a myth.
The myth itself is one of the most fundamental views to transpire within modern consumerist society. Supported by the mantras of neo-classic and supply-side economic theory and in conjunction with our newfound technological hubris emerges the unquestionable assumptions of perpetual growth and “endless substitution”. Essentially the myth embodies the faith that the “market” will always provide. New products and resources are always superseded by something cheaper, more efficient and much better than the previous. To economists natural resources are no exception to the rule. The market of course dictates, as productivity increases, prices drop, production increases, more exchange occurs and living standards rise for all involved. And on and on and on it goes, forever.
Neo-classic economic theory is the supposed perpetual motion machine of the globalised mass consumer fantasy, predicated by endless economic growth compounding at 3% or so a year, creating wealth via fractional reserve banking and fiat currency. Tomorrow’s expansion is the put-up collateral for today’s debt. According to modern economics there are no limits to this growth. Forget the sciences, unquestionable faith in technological progress will allow us to use fewer and fewer resources for greater and greater returns. The reductio ad absurdum of this bizarre form of reasoning is that technology will eventually enable us to use zero resources for infinite returns.
Both science and reason inform us otherwise. We only need consult the laws of thermodynamics in order to inform ourselves that any kind of perpetual motion machine is impossible. Energy is the capacity to do work. No energy equals no work. Thus our entire global economy much to the chagrin of voodoo economists is 100% dependant upon energy. In order to grow economically we must also grow our energy consumption too.
It may be offensive to futurists, technologists and economists but the laws of thermodynamics inculcate that neither capital, labour nor technology can create energy. We cannot convert our supposed intelligence, our ability to find novel technological solutions into energy. Instead available energy must be expended in order to transform matter (e.g., oil, natural gas etc.) or to divert an existing energy flow (e.g., water, wind etc.) into more available energy. Furthermore energy resources must produce more energy than they consume. It would never be economic to expend more than one barrel of oil to extract one barrel of oil.
A new magazine that is about the be released - this week or next I think, watch out for it.
Anyway, they have invited me to write an article. I thought I'd publish the first couple of paragraphs, I like them. It's supposed to be about Peak Oil but I got carried away with myself. Comments welcome - if anyone reads this godforsaken blog.
edited 18th Feb
The End of The Age of Reason
The fundamental promise at the dawn of the 20th century was the democratisation of modernity. The ideology of modernity prescribes rational thought as the ultimate liberator informing us to the truth about the world and ourselves. The road to progress therefore would be one built upon true knowledge, knowledge informed by science and logic, free from superstition, dogma and ignorance. And lets face it science delivered, not only did it put men on the moon but it laid the foundation for our modern all-mod-cons way of life. The last century upon the foundations of science and logic was one characterised by great technological advancement. We have become accustomed to the belief consequently, that there are technological solutions to all our problems, we like to call this human ingenuity.
However the 21st century dawns under the spectre of an ever-increasing pluralism. Science and rationalism is in decline in favour of baneful individualism. The sciences popularly perceived as irrelevant by students and laymen are retreating into their respective labs and philosophy departments, in favour of a kind of pop-cultural post-modern relativism. In the wake of this retreat we are left with all manner of popular worldviews that by and large freely evolve within the democratized slurry of our suburban malls, determined by our SUV driven, recreational shopping lifestyles, mostly devoid of any rationality, selected for consumption by a corporatist media intent and dependant upon perpetuating a myth.
The myth itself is one of the most fundamental views to transpire within modern consumerist society. Supported by the mantras of neo-classic and supply-side economic theory and in conjunction with our newfound technological hubris emerges the unquestionable assumptions of perpetual growth and “endless substitution”. Essentially the myth embodies the faith that the “market” will always provide. New products and resources are always superseded by something cheaper, more efficient and much better than the previous. To economists natural resources are no exception to the rule. The market of course dictates, as productivity increases, prices drop, production increases, more exchange occurs and living standards rise for all involved. And on and on and on it goes, forever.
Neo-classic economic theory is the supposed perpetual motion machine of the globalised mass consumer fantasy, predicated by endless economic growth compounding at 3% or so a year, creating wealth via fractional reserve banking and fiat currency. Tomorrow’s expansion is the put-up collateral for today’s debt. According to modern economics there are no limits to this growth. Forget the sciences, unquestionable faith in technological progress will allow us to use fewer and fewer resources for greater and greater returns. The reductio ad absurdum of this bizarre form of reasoning is that technology will eventually enable us to use zero resources for infinite returns.
Both science and reason inform us otherwise. We only need consult the laws of thermodynamics in order to inform ourselves that any kind of perpetual motion machine is impossible. Energy is the capacity to do work. No energy equals no work. Thus our entire global economy much to the chagrin of voodoo economists is 100% dependant upon energy. In order to grow economically we must also grow our energy consumption too.
It may be offensive to futurists, technologists and economists but the laws of thermodynamics inculcate that neither capital, labour nor technology can create energy. We cannot convert our supposed intelligence, our ability to find novel technological solutions into energy. Instead available energy must be expended in order to transform matter (e.g., oil, natural gas etc.) or to divert an existing energy flow (e.g., water, wind etc.) into more available energy. Furthermore energy resources must produce more energy than they consume. It would never be economic to expend more than one barrel of oil to extract one barrel of oil.
on PEANZ - Petroleum Exploration Association of NZ
The converstation with Mike Patrick of PEANZ continued. I shan't bore anyone with the detail, but interestingly Mike said some of these things.
Mike thinks oil is a renewable resource!?
Oh, Mike thinks is ok to throw trillions of dollars into drilling dry holes on the endless quest of "trying" to be self-sufficient, presumably this follows from the first quote.
I'll leave you to draw your own conclusions from this. Mike did remind me he IS a scientist, so we should all just bow down at the alter of authority and believe him.
Steve.
The converstation with Mike Patrick of PEANZ continued. I shan't bore anyone with the detail, but interestingly Mike said some of these things.
I re-state my case – yes, one day the world’s petroleum reserves will physically run out, despite that fact that it is a “renewable” resource
Mike thinks oil is a renewable resource!?
NZ probably will never be self-sufficient in petroleum resources, but we shouldn’t stop trying eh?
Oh, Mike thinks is ok to throw trillions of dollars into drilling dry holes on the endless quest of "trying" to be self-sufficient, presumably this follows from the first quote.
I'll leave you to draw your own conclusions from this. Mike did remind me he IS a scientist, so we should all just bow down at the alter of authority and believe him.
Steve.
Thursday, February 10, 2005
An interesting exchange with the Petroleum Exploration Association of New Zealand.
The press release Booming Oil & Gas Ind. Seeks Level Playing Field on the 2nd February 2005 in Scoop prompted me to ask further questions of Petroleum Exploration Association of New Zealand.
PEANZ claimed that New Zealand could become self-sufficient in regard to it's production of oil. I asked the question what kind of investment would required to ensure this. What follows is Mike Patricks reponse for Donald Morgan, Chairman. And my subsequent response to Mike.
Steve
In order for NZ to become self-sufficient in oil supplies, you’re looking at approximately 5M tonnes per year – and we currently produce 1M locally. Can NZ have the reserves to meet this level of indigenous production? Yes, the industry and its scientific backup believe so. The costs to obtain this level of production is impossible to predict because it depends entirely upon whether the new reserves are onshore or offshore, if the latter how far offshore, how close to infrastructure, etc etc. Certainly large though.
Should not this money be preparing for the future oil supply shortfall? Hmm, will there be one in our lifetimes? Or our children’s? The world is not running out of oil, it’s running out of cheap oil – as price rises, technology gains and economics means that a lot of oil in the ground currently uneconomic to extract (and not booked in formal reserves figures) becomes economic to extract.
This is how, strange as it seems, that some fields can increase reserves after many years of pumping – the economic factor! Yes, the industry believes that one day world demand will exceed physical supply, but it also believes that economics will play the larger role in the shift to other forms of fuel before that time, with marine and aviation being the last ‘kids off the block” – to quote Sheik Yermani, former OPEC head, “the stone age didn’t end because we ran out of stones, and the oil era will not end because we run out of oil” – ie other technologies and fuels will become more economic and hence oil demand will drop to about 30% or so of its current levels (that’s the level required for the plastics in your computer and a lot of the pharmaceuticals you and others take, for fibres and other oil-derived chemicals)
To which I replied...
Mike,
Firstly thank you for the response but what I really wanted to know however was what kind of investment was required for NZ to become self-sufficient.
Interestingly if the "costs to obtain this level of production are impossible to predict" as you say this indicates to me that it is possible (if not probable) that the costs could in fact exceed the returns in terms of the current NPV of oil. Of course this would be a ridiculous scenario. Not quite as ridiculous as it sounds. I am sure you are aware that the total world discovery of oil in 2004 was about 7Gb, 2Gb located in deep water finds. Less than half of this discovery was fields with reserves greater than 100mb. Interestingly however the cost of the exploration alone (let alone development) exceeded the net present value of the discoveries in absolute terms.
The press release Booming Oil & Gas Ind. Seeks Level Playing Field on the 2nd February 2005 in Scoop prompted me to ask further questions of Petroleum Exploration Association of New Zealand.
PEANZ claimed that New Zealand could become self-sufficient in regard to it's production of oil. I asked the question what kind of investment would required to ensure this. What follows is Mike Patricks reponse for Donald Morgan, Chairman. And my subsequent response to Mike.
Steve
In order for NZ to become self-sufficient in oil supplies, you’re looking at approximately 5M tonnes per year – and we currently produce 1M locally. Can NZ have the reserves to meet this level of indigenous production? Yes, the industry and its scientific backup believe so. The costs to obtain this level of production is impossible to predict because it depends entirely upon whether the new reserves are onshore or offshore, if the latter how far offshore, how close to infrastructure, etc etc. Certainly large though.
Should not this money be preparing for the future oil supply shortfall? Hmm, will there be one in our lifetimes? Or our children’s? The world is not running out of oil, it’s running out of cheap oil – as price rises, technology gains and economics means that a lot of oil in the ground currently uneconomic to extract (and not booked in formal reserves figures) becomes economic to extract.
This is how, strange as it seems, that some fields can increase reserves after many years of pumping – the economic factor! Yes, the industry believes that one day world demand will exceed physical supply, but it also believes that economics will play the larger role in the shift to other forms of fuel before that time, with marine and aviation being the last ‘kids off the block” – to quote Sheik Yermani, former OPEC head, “the stone age didn’t end because we ran out of stones, and the oil era will not end because we run out of oil” – ie other technologies and fuels will become more economic and hence oil demand will drop to about 30% or so of its current levels (that’s the level required for the plastics in your computer and a lot of the pharmaceuticals you and others take, for fibres and other oil-derived chemicals)
To which I replied...
Mike,
Firstly thank you for the response but what I really wanted to know however was what kind of investment was required for NZ to become self-sufficient.
Interestingly if the "costs to obtain this level of production are impossible to predict" as you say this indicates to me that it is possible (if not probable) that the costs could in fact exceed the returns in terms of the current NPV of oil. Of course this would be a ridiculous scenario. Not quite as ridiculous as it sounds. I am sure you are aware that the total world discovery of oil in 2004 was about 7Gb, 2Gb located in deep water finds. Less than half of this discovery was fields with reserves greater than 100mb. Interestingly however the cost of the exploration alone (let alone development) exceeded the net present value of the discoveries in absolute terms.
Obviously this bodes well for those speculating on oil futures markets. Just today the IEA warned that "greater-than-expected demand and disappointing world production growth could strain world supplies". (Reuters). The IEA have revised their demand growth figures upwards and their discovery figures downward - how long can these adjustments continue before demand supplants supply?
Actually you are wrong, the world is running out of oil, it began running out the day the first barrel was extracted. What is at issue is the timing. What is more important however is that we are approaching (if not already at) the end of the first half of global oil production. The second half will of course be characterised by a gradual decline as we try harder and harder to squeeze out the remnants. Most Saudi oil already is cut with about 30% artifact seawater. This is no secret.
I've never really been able to fathom the claim "the stone age didn't end because we ran out of stone..." Remind yourself that the transition from tools such as axes and arrowheads made of stone to more effective weapons made from iron and bronze occurred over several centuries - the transition was about moving to something more effective than stone. Yet we are looking to transition a planet of 8 billion people, the agricultural systems that feed us - a global economy based on cheap oil technologies to one that is dependant on some other yet to be developed technology. All this must occur within a few short decades. Your argument that the "oil age won't end because we run out of oil" presumes by the analogy that some other more efficient alternative will be found such that endless economic growth can continue.
I'm not sure how you come up with the argument that oil demand will drop to about 30% of it's current level??? What will take it's place? Rather than dropping in demand oil demand per capita in NZ has grown steadily since the 70s. At what price per barrel do you expect oil demand to begin dropping, where and what is the infrastructure to replace the 70% - will this just magically appear overnight, or the day structural supply deficits become self-evident? If you want to replace oil with somethink like say biodesiel what energy are you going to use to cultivate, harvest and process the biomass. If you want to replace it with hydrogen where will that come from? We can barely keep Auckland running on electricity without everyone plugging their hybrids in for a recharge every night. You have to follow the energy equation from the beginning to the end. Technology or capital doesn't create energy Mike.
Anyway NZ will become 100% self-sufficient in regards to oil supply so we won't need the alternatives right?
I wish you luck in your venture Mike - excuse my brashness but I think your dreaming. Remind yourself of Thomas Khuns observation - "but there are always some men who cling to one or other of the older views, and they are simply read out of the profession, which thereafter ignores their work."
Cheers
Steve.
Tuesday, February 08, 2005
The Dawn of the Second Half of the Age of Oil
by Colin Campbell
from the ASPO Feb Newsletter, Feb 9, 2005
This Newsletter has now been running for four years and has covered almost 500 items of interest. It is accordingly perhaps timely to look back and try to summarise what might be learnt from the exercise. The Newsletter started in a modest way with no particular mission, concentrating at first on the more technical aspects of the matter. Later, it came to cover various related geopolitical issues, some of a sensitive nature. Gradually a picture began to fall into place, which may be summarised as follows:
The Industrial Revolution opened in the mid 18th Century with the exploitation of coal, initially in Britain, providing a new fuel for industry, transport and trade, which grew rapidly. The Oil Age dawned 100 years later, initially to provide lamp-oil for illumination, but later to fuel transport, following the development of the Internal Combustion Engine. Electricity generation expanded widely, fuelled first by coal, but later mainly from oil, gas and nuclear energy. This epoch has been widely seen as one of amazing technological progress, which has conditioned many people to think that there must always be a technological solution.
The Industrial Revolution was accompanied by an equally important, but less visible, Financial Revolution. In short, commercial banks lent money in excess of what they had on deposit, effectively creating money out of thin air, but the system worked because tomorrow’s expansion provided collateral for to-day’s debt. It was effectively a system of confidence, an intrinsic element of all debt. So, it might be better termed the Financial-Industrial Revolution.
The Stock Markets evolved from being simply an exchange of dividend-yielding instruments to become largely speculative institutions, being in turn stimulated by the tax regime that gave preferential treatment to speculative gains. In addition, World trading currencies, previously the pound sterling and now the US dollar, delivered massive hidden returns to the issuing countries, becoming in effect the prime benefit of Empire.
The World’s population expanded six-fold exactly in parallel with oil, which provided much of the fuel with which to plough the field, and bring food and manufactured goods to market, thus indirectly supporting the Financial System. The international of transport of food reduced the risk of local famines when harvests failed for climatic and other reasons.
The Second Half of the Oil Age now dawns and will be characterised by the decline of oil, followed by gas, and all that depends upon these prime energy sources. The actual decline of oil will be gradual at less than three percent a year: such that the production of all liquid hydrocarbons in 2020 will have fallen to approximately what it was in 1990. In those terms, it does not appear to be a particularly serious situation. But in reality, it is a devastating development because it implies that the oil-based economy is in permanent terminal decline, removing the confidence in perpetual growth on which the Financial System depends. Without the assumption of ever-onward growth, borrowing and lending dry up: there being little viable left to invest in. It follows that there will be a need to remove vast amounts of so-called Capital, which in fact was not Capital in the sense of being the saved proceeds of labour, but merely an expression of speculative confidence in ever onward economic growth. This in turn leads to the conclusion that the World faces another Great Depression, triggered more by the perception of long term decline of the general economy rather than the actual decline of oil supply itself which is gradual not cataclysmic. The World is definitely not about to run out of oil, but it does face the onset of decline having consumed about half of what is readily available on the Planet.
This is not welcome news, and those with mindsets conditioned on past experience find it very difficult to accept, some becoming vituperative in their reaction. In terms of pragmatic politics, it is virtually impossible for Governments to plan and prepare with logical strategies to face the new world that opens. Accordingly, the transition will likely be a time of international tension and resource wars of which the first salvoes have already been fired. But some of the more philosophically inclined wonder if in fact the post-oil world might not turn out to be a more harmonious one for the survivors. There are indeed hopes, Deus volens, that they may number somewhat more than the Planet was able to support prior to what by then will be seen to have been the brief Age of Oil, during which the World consumed its inheritance of fossil sunshine.
Wednesday, February 02, 2005
Peak Oil and The Sociology of Knowledge
Original Article posted on Scoop 2 February, 2005
A Peak Oil Primer
This article also now appears on Energy Bulletin
The significance in differences in argument between what Colin Campbell terms the “flat-earth fraternity” and Peak Oil theorists is profound.
Flat-earthers typically dismiss arguments that global oil production will peak (very soon) and subsequently decline in favour of arguments claiming that vast reserves of oil exist (somewhere) and can be exploited well into the future thus securing economic growth for decades to come. Other variations from the flat-earthers include such arguments from the smooth transition to a “hydrogen economy” to the bizarre claims in the absence of any knowledge of the laws of thermodynamics, that modern supply-side economic theory combined with technology will somehow magically produce oil or some cheaper more efficient alternative to the dictates of market demand.
Peak oil’s empirically based claims can countenance no such sociological or economically arational challenges. It seems today for all purposes that there is little or no spare oil production capacity world wide, we currently produce about 83 Million barrels per day. Yet in today’s “deficits don’t matter” world everything but everything is blamed for oil supply concern except geological limitations.
Continued economic growth predicated by cheap and abundant oil viewed through the perspective of such an inherently flawed argument seems to ignore all prejudiced, obscurantist and irrational baggage. Upbeat claims regarding abundant oil by Oil companies, OPEC, Governments, the International Energy Agency, and Automobile Associations amongst others obtain a legitimacy, which obviates the need to look at the social milieu for an explanation as to what is actually going on.
History however clearly instructs us that rationality (or in this case the lack thereof), choice and belief inevitably depend upon the existence of certain social structures and norms. Beliefs across groups of people can emerge under specific intellectual conditions informed by empirical problems and guided by respected research traditions. Such a methodology unfortunately rarely speaks to the social classes chock-full of pregnant confusion, largely ignorant to dynamics of energy supply, consumption and its relationship with societal well being. In other words, the masses will suck up mainstream media propaganda that we need to rid the world of terrorists and that oil will return to US$25 per barrel very soon. Continue your recreational shopping at your pleasure.
In many ways it is perhaps an historical curiosity that science was touted as having enormous practical and utilitarian value in informing and inevitably improving the physical conditions of life. This approach however in the face of mass consumption, aspirations and expectations of certain standards of living seems to carry no weight anymore. Instead many of us look to economists, politicians and other soothsayers to assure us that the science in regard to Peak Oil is wrong, if you want to know what’s happening to oil supply you’re better off reading your local Financial Times than consulting an oil geologist. The fact that oil reserves equivalent to five or so Saudi Arabias will be discovered and developed within a decade or so and that the oil price per barrel will return sometime soon to US$25 dollars per barrel are a given.
PowerLess NZ urge New Zealanders and politicians unafraid of ditching their dogmas to rationally question current assumptions. Consider our economic system, predicated on debt, fractional-reserve banking and fiat currency. Much of what we consider “value” in New Zealand is not determined by anything at all measurable or tangible it is merely a perception of an expectation of future use or gain.
This system is necessarily dependant upon limitless infinite growth to survive. Rational thought ought to inform all of us that this scenario is an impossibility theorem. Growth is not possible without energy and there is nothing on the market that can currently replace oil and natural gas. Without oil and natural gas our financial system is doomed. Several respected independent scientific sources predict Peak Oil, the time at which the demand for oil exceeds the available supply, to occur between 2005 and 2007. Richard Heinberg argues the answer to this dilemma is the one no one wants to hear. So we sit, and wait, and assume, and deny.
Steve McKinlay (c)
http://www.oilcrash.com/
Original Article posted on Scoop 2 February, 2005
A Peak Oil Primer
This article also now appears on Energy Bulletin
Anyone who wants to drag in the irrational where the lucidity and acuity of reason still must rule by right merely shows that he is afraid to face the mystery at its legitimate place. Karl Mannheim (1952).
The significance in differences in argument between what Colin Campbell terms the “flat-earth fraternity” and Peak Oil theorists is profound.
Flat-earthers typically dismiss arguments that global oil production will peak (very soon) and subsequently decline in favour of arguments claiming that vast reserves of oil exist (somewhere) and can be exploited well into the future thus securing economic growth for decades to come. Other variations from the flat-earthers include such arguments from the smooth transition to a “hydrogen economy” to the bizarre claims in the absence of any knowledge of the laws of thermodynamics, that modern supply-side economic theory combined with technology will somehow magically produce oil or some cheaper more efficient alternative to the dictates of market demand.
Peak oil’s empirically based claims can countenance no such sociological or economically arational challenges. It seems today for all purposes that there is little or no spare oil production capacity world wide, we currently produce about 83 Million barrels per day. Yet in today’s “deficits don’t matter” world everything but everything is blamed for oil supply concern except geological limitations.
Continued economic growth predicated by cheap and abundant oil viewed through the perspective of such an inherently flawed argument seems to ignore all prejudiced, obscurantist and irrational baggage. Upbeat claims regarding abundant oil by Oil companies, OPEC, Governments, the International Energy Agency, and Automobile Associations amongst others obtain a legitimacy, which obviates the need to look at the social milieu for an explanation as to what is actually going on.
History however clearly instructs us that rationality (or in this case the lack thereof), choice and belief inevitably depend upon the existence of certain social structures and norms. Beliefs across groups of people can emerge under specific intellectual conditions informed by empirical problems and guided by respected research traditions. Such a methodology unfortunately rarely speaks to the social classes chock-full of pregnant confusion, largely ignorant to dynamics of energy supply, consumption and its relationship with societal well being. In other words, the masses will suck up mainstream media propaganda that we need to rid the world of terrorists and that oil will return to US$25 per barrel very soon. Continue your recreational shopping at your pleasure.
In many ways it is perhaps an historical curiosity that science was touted as having enormous practical and utilitarian value in informing and inevitably improving the physical conditions of life. This approach however in the face of mass consumption, aspirations and expectations of certain standards of living seems to carry no weight anymore. Instead many of us look to economists, politicians and other soothsayers to assure us that the science in regard to Peak Oil is wrong, if you want to know what’s happening to oil supply you’re better off reading your local Financial Times than consulting an oil geologist. The fact that oil reserves equivalent to five or so Saudi Arabias will be discovered and developed within a decade or so and that the oil price per barrel will return sometime soon to US$25 dollars per barrel are a given.
PowerLess NZ urge New Zealanders and politicians unafraid of ditching their dogmas to rationally question current assumptions. Consider our economic system, predicated on debt, fractional-reserve banking and fiat currency. Much of what we consider “value” in New Zealand is not determined by anything at all measurable or tangible it is merely a perception of an expectation of future use or gain.
This system is necessarily dependant upon limitless infinite growth to survive. Rational thought ought to inform all of us that this scenario is an impossibility theorem. Growth is not possible without energy and there is nothing on the market that can currently replace oil and natural gas. Without oil and natural gas our financial system is doomed. Several respected independent scientific sources predict Peak Oil, the time at which the demand for oil exceeds the available supply, to occur between 2005 and 2007. Richard Heinberg argues the answer to this dilemma is the one no one wants to hear. So we sit, and wait, and assume, and deny.
Steve McKinlay (c)
http://www.oilcrash.com/
Monday, January 31, 2005
Two Thumb Tarn
I was here three weeks ago. The Two Thumb Range, between Lake Tekapo and the Rangitata River, Canterbury, NZ.
Tuesday, September 14, 2004
Suburbia's looming fire-sale
On the forthcoming energy crunch Jim Kunstler argues,
These beliefs, that the society our children will inherit will somehow be richer, more open and peaceful and economically more prosperous. That technology and coming generations will solve the collective global problems we face. We truly believe in the fallacy of endless substitution. That we will discover and liberate energy sources cheaper and more productive as existing ones run out. In New Zealand many of us favour leaving such issue’s to the “market” to sort out. After all, the stone-age didn’t end because we ran out of stone.
An acute understanding of the fundamentals of energy and its intrinsic relationship with society instructs us differently however. The post-globalist, post-cheap-oil age will seriously challenge our deeply seated assumptions. We don’t have to run out of oil for life to be up-ended. We merely need to experience a supply squeeze and a reasonable price spike for all the mechanisms that support our modern life to be seriously destabilised. This situation is quickly approaching. The world is currently experiencing growth in oil use that is stretching available supply to the absolute limit. This is occurring when the global production of oil is about to move over it’s all time peak, after which it will be in permanent and increasing decline.
The public of New Zealand are about to get the shock of their lives. Currently there is no national leadership in regard to this issue. It is entirely likely that an aggrieved angry public will lash out as the instant erosion of lifestyle is paralleled by increasing fuel prices and shortages.
The resultant disorder will require an urgent downscaling of virtually all the activities in New Zealand. The suburban lifestyles many of us have invested our life’s earnings in, represent arguably the largest misallocation of resources since the Second World War. We will be forced to live closer to work, within walking or cycling distance.
As national and international supply chains are affected by disrupted oil markets the days of driving your 4WD to the Warehouse for some recreational shopping will quickly come to an end. The emergence of such massive discounters and franchisers was seen as a huge boon to mass consumerism however many of us failed to notice the losses incurred to society as the demise of localised retail systems followed. Such centralised national chains are ultimately dependant upon an infrastructure both local and international, that require heavily oil reliant distribution channels to be operationally seamless.
We will need to re-establish interdependent localised communities based on moving merchandise including food and produce shorter distances. Rail systems will have to be developed to replace defunct long-haul trucking systems.
Our agricultural systems face similar restructuring. Many of our food products are mass produced hundreds of kilometres away from cities and trucked to New World’s and Pack & Save stores country-wide. The re-emergence of market-gardens and localised agri-business will be necessary. Interdependent multi-mode distribution and transportation channels will have to be re-established if we are to feed ourselves. Farming will be performed on a much smaller scale. Access to fossil-fuel based fertilisers and pesticides will be tenuous and rather than a trendy luxury, small scale organic farming will become a necessity.
The changes we face, the end of globalisation bought about by the emerging dysfunction and peak in world oil production will not be pleasant. We will be forced to change our living arrangements in ways that we never envisioned in the golden years of the 1990s.
Suburban life has no future!
In fact many people will find that their lifelong financial investment in this car-dependent living arrangement becomes worthless almost overnight. Kunstler argues that we could well see a mad scramble to “get-out” (of suburbia). Unfortunately history reminds us that we are likely to cling to the tragic delusion that somehow “things will get back to normal”. The defence of the suburban way of life will become a bizarre yet futile exercise. It is very likely to precipitate appalling political situations. As it becomes increasingly evident that it is impossible to maintain our suburban utopia communities will likely turn to fanatical politicians preaching a “business as usual” message.
Whether we like it or not we are on the road to an extended harsh period of austerity and consequent re-adjustment. The sooner as a nation we face up to this dilemma the less the shock will be.
www.oilcrash.com
http://www.energybulletin.net/
Steve.
PowerLess NZ
On the forthcoming energy crunch Jim Kunstler argues,
”Many of the beliefs and accepted dogmas of the late 20th century will fallOne of the reasons a great many people, policy makers and leaders find it impossible to face the issue of peak oil is because it challenges the very beliefs that we argue are a priori truths about industrialised western societies, without requirement for justification, our fundamental birth-rights.
away as a new and very different reality asserts itself.”
These beliefs, that the society our children will inherit will somehow be richer, more open and peaceful and economically more prosperous. That technology and coming generations will solve the collective global problems we face. We truly believe in the fallacy of endless substitution. That we will discover and liberate energy sources cheaper and more productive as existing ones run out. In New Zealand many of us favour leaving such issue’s to the “market” to sort out. After all, the stone-age didn’t end because we ran out of stone.
An acute understanding of the fundamentals of energy and its intrinsic relationship with society instructs us differently however. The post-globalist, post-cheap-oil age will seriously challenge our deeply seated assumptions. We don’t have to run out of oil for life to be up-ended. We merely need to experience a supply squeeze and a reasonable price spike for all the mechanisms that support our modern life to be seriously destabilised. This situation is quickly approaching. The world is currently experiencing growth in oil use that is stretching available supply to the absolute limit. This is occurring when the global production of oil is about to move over it’s all time peak, after which it will be in permanent and increasing decline.
The public of New Zealand are about to get the shock of their lives. Currently there is no national leadership in regard to this issue. It is entirely likely that an aggrieved angry public will lash out as the instant erosion of lifestyle is paralleled by increasing fuel prices and shortages.
The resultant disorder will require an urgent downscaling of virtually all the activities in New Zealand. The suburban lifestyles many of us have invested our life’s earnings in, represent arguably the largest misallocation of resources since the Second World War. We will be forced to live closer to work, within walking or cycling distance.
As national and international supply chains are affected by disrupted oil markets the days of driving your 4WD to the Warehouse for some recreational shopping will quickly come to an end. The emergence of such massive discounters and franchisers was seen as a huge boon to mass consumerism however many of us failed to notice the losses incurred to society as the demise of localised retail systems followed. Such centralised national chains are ultimately dependant upon an infrastructure both local and international, that require heavily oil reliant distribution channels to be operationally seamless.
We will need to re-establish interdependent localised communities based on moving merchandise including food and produce shorter distances. Rail systems will have to be developed to replace defunct long-haul trucking systems.
Our agricultural systems face similar restructuring. Many of our food products are mass produced hundreds of kilometres away from cities and trucked to New World’s and Pack & Save stores country-wide. The re-emergence of market-gardens and localised agri-business will be necessary. Interdependent multi-mode distribution and transportation channels will have to be re-established if we are to feed ourselves. Farming will be performed on a much smaller scale. Access to fossil-fuel based fertilisers and pesticides will be tenuous and rather than a trendy luxury, small scale organic farming will become a necessity.
The changes we face, the end of globalisation bought about by the emerging dysfunction and peak in world oil production will not be pleasant. We will be forced to change our living arrangements in ways that we never envisioned in the golden years of the 1990s.
Suburban life has no future!
In fact many people will find that their lifelong financial investment in this car-dependent living arrangement becomes worthless almost overnight. Kunstler argues that we could well see a mad scramble to “get-out” (of suburbia). Unfortunately history reminds us that we are likely to cling to the tragic delusion that somehow “things will get back to normal”. The defence of the suburban way of life will become a bizarre yet futile exercise. It is very likely to precipitate appalling political situations. As it becomes increasingly evident that it is impossible to maintain our suburban utopia communities will likely turn to fanatical politicians preaching a “business as usual” message.
Whether we like it or not we are on the road to an extended harsh period of austerity and consequent re-adjustment. The sooner as a nation we face up to this dilemma the less the shock will be.
www.oilcrash.com
http://www.energybulletin.net/
Steve.
PowerLess NZ
Monday, August 30, 2004
New Zealand: In 15 Years Time
In 15 years kids will be kicking battered rugby balls around on multilane highways and sifting through wastelands, sitting amongst rubber tyres, the discarded detritus, the smouldering embers of yesterday.
Rich people still trying to buy very expensive petrol at the few remaining outlets will be subjected to attacks by marauding groups of resentful vigilante's, the baseball bat will emerge as the natural enemy of the SUV.
There will be a massive rush to get out of the suburbs as the middle classes realise all their investment in such lifestyles is worthless, many will remain in denial, desperately clinging to the hope that things will get better as their towns begin to resemble the Minsk ghetto. Things don't get better.
Feudal middle age style villages will begin emerging in rural areas, heavily protected and defended by those that heed the warnings early. Hoards of people will blame the government, totalitarianism will begin to emerge in place of democracy, law and order will become the primary occupation of the Government. Military coups are entirely possible.
Civil disorder, confusion, crime, rape, looting and fear will reign over wide sectors of society. Society will revert largely to a survival of the biggest and strongest. Racial violence will become rife as fringe groups like the National Front grow dramatically in size and assert their authority. People will view certain ethnic groups in society of having no place in NZ. As the fabric of society is eroded essential services will become increasingly unreliable, highrise buildings, sections of airports, The Warehouse, K-marts all will become squatter's quarters as they empty of businesses, unemployment will soar.
Child poverty, disease and malnourishment will escalate. Infant mortality rates will increase. Queues at what used to be supermarkets will be commonplace as transportation and supply lines are increasingly disabled.
The Government will initiate rationing, curfews and pass laws restricting all manner of behavioir, desenters will be severly punished. Hospitals will resemble war time field hospitals as funding drys up.
Suicide will rise dramatically as over committed heavily debted people find nothing left to live for. Universities will close down departments, many schools will close - massive downsizing will be the inevitable result of lack of funds.
Regional and city councils will be unable to maintain essential systems, water,waste and sewerage systems will suffer as rate's funds begin to dry up. Current market oriented business investment to upgrade and maintain electricitysystems will be nonexistent, black outs will be common. Government will be forced to spend money it doesn't have to procure such assets back in a futile effort to regain stability.
City streets will begin to resemble filthy third world cities, complete with beggers, thiefs, touters, hawkers and gangs. Alcoholism and child prostitution will increase.
All non essential funding for the art's, grants, research, subsidies, DOC and environmental projects, etc will dry up. Possum numbers will increase dramatically - that's good, we'll need them for food. Ecological diversity will suffer - but no one will really care.
There will be a necessary harsh adjustment away from our totally unsustainable lifestyles to one that resembles the latter part of the 18th century, but with 4 million mouths. Class divisions will begin to emerge. The debt heavy middle class will disappear overnight. Hundreds of thousands of people will lose their homes a month or so after they lose their jobs. A whole generation will be displaced.
New Zealand will descend into a totalitarian dystopia.
Life will become a bitch.
Long before we begin dreaming optimistically we need to face this reality. Because unless we begin preparing now this is what life in NZ will be like in 15 years - and that's probably an optimistic view.
In 15 years kids will be kicking battered rugby balls around on multilane highways and sifting through wastelands, sitting amongst rubber tyres, the discarded detritus, the smouldering embers of yesterday.
Rich people still trying to buy very expensive petrol at the few remaining outlets will be subjected to attacks by marauding groups of resentful vigilante's, the baseball bat will emerge as the natural enemy of the SUV.
There will be a massive rush to get out of the suburbs as the middle classes realise all their investment in such lifestyles is worthless, many will remain in denial, desperately clinging to the hope that things will get better as their towns begin to resemble the Minsk ghetto. Things don't get better.
Feudal middle age style villages will begin emerging in rural areas, heavily protected and defended by those that heed the warnings early. Hoards of people will blame the government, totalitarianism will begin to emerge in place of democracy, law and order will become the primary occupation of the Government. Military coups are entirely possible.
Civil disorder, confusion, crime, rape, looting and fear will reign over wide sectors of society. Society will revert largely to a survival of the biggest and strongest. Racial violence will become rife as fringe groups like the National Front grow dramatically in size and assert their authority. People will view certain ethnic groups in society of having no place in NZ. As the fabric of society is eroded essential services will become increasingly unreliable, highrise buildings, sections of airports, The Warehouse, K-marts all will become squatter's quarters as they empty of businesses, unemployment will soar.
Child poverty, disease and malnourishment will escalate. Infant mortality rates will increase. Queues at what used to be supermarkets will be commonplace as transportation and supply lines are increasingly disabled.
The Government will initiate rationing, curfews and pass laws restricting all manner of behavioir, desenters will be severly punished. Hospitals will resemble war time field hospitals as funding drys up.
Suicide will rise dramatically as over committed heavily debted people find nothing left to live for. Universities will close down departments, many schools will close - massive downsizing will be the inevitable result of lack of funds.
Regional and city councils will be unable to maintain essential systems, water,waste and sewerage systems will suffer as rate's funds begin to dry up. Current market oriented business investment to upgrade and maintain electricitysystems will be nonexistent, black outs will be common. Government will be forced to spend money it doesn't have to procure such assets back in a futile effort to regain stability.
City streets will begin to resemble filthy third world cities, complete with beggers, thiefs, touters, hawkers and gangs. Alcoholism and child prostitution will increase.
All non essential funding for the art's, grants, research, subsidies, DOC and environmental projects, etc will dry up. Possum numbers will increase dramatically - that's good, we'll need them for food. Ecological diversity will suffer - but no one will really care.
There will be a necessary harsh adjustment away from our totally unsustainable lifestyles to one that resembles the latter part of the 18th century, but with 4 million mouths. Class divisions will begin to emerge. The debt heavy middle class will disappear overnight. Hundreds of thousands of people will lose their homes a month or so after they lose their jobs. A whole generation will be displaced.
New Zealand will descend into a totalitarian dystopia.
Life will become a bitch.
Long before we begin dreaming optimistically we need to face this reality. Because unless we begin preparing now this is what life in NZ will be like in 15 years - and that's probably an optimistic view.
Thursday, August 26, 2004
ClusterFuck Nation
This is the title of Jim Kunstlers excellent blog. But I think his philosophy equally applies to our country (NZ). People are in for one helluva big shock. The world production of oil is peaking - that is demand is almost outpacing supply. Once this event happens, unless we begin to prepare ourselves now, basically we're screwed.
Our world is gonna change - simple as that. This governments claims that they are planning to increase tourism, spending on road infrastructure, work on further global trade deals. It's all a fucking waste of time. In 20 years we'll be burning tyres to keep warm. By next decade kids will be playing rugby on the motorways - expensive cycle and bus lanes - if there are buses running.
People are deluded if they think the way we live can continue indefinately. More suburban sprawl and housing estates, DVD's, LCD screen TV's, never ending ships with full of imported Cherokee Jeeps... this is all gonna end - soonish.
The days of sitting in your big fat gas sucking SUV chugging down KFC are drawing to a close. The global supply lines that provide the Warehouse and K-Mart with everything from cheap tacky Chinese made ornaments that clutter the mantlepiece in your energy hungry suburban McMansion to kids action figures to plastic toilet seats will falter as demand for oil outstrips the available supply.
Don't take my word for it. BP's global figures verify it.
Go and check out Jim Kunstlers ClusterFuck Archives... and get clued up.
This is the title of Jim Kunstlers excellent blog. But I think his philosophy equally applies to our country (NZ). People are in for one helluva big shock. The world production of oil is peaking - that is demand is almost outpacing supply. Once this event happens, unless we begin to prepare ourselves now, basically we're screwed.
Our world is gonna change - simple as that. This governments claims that they are planning to increase tourism, spending on road infrastructure, work on further global trade deals. It's all a fucking waste of time. In 20 years we'll be burning tyres to keep warm. By next decade kids will be playing rugby on the motorways - expensive cycle and bus lanes - if there are buses running.
People are deluded if they think the way we live can continue indefinately. More suburban sprawl and housing estates, DVD's, LCD screen TV's, never ending ships with full of imported Cherokee Jeeps... this is all gonna end - soonish.
The days of sitting in your big fat gas sucking SUV chugging down KFC are drawing to a close. The global supply lines that provide the Warehouse and K-Mart with everything from cheap tacky Chinese made ornaments that clutter the mantlepiece in your energy hungry suburban McMansion to kids action figures to plastic toilet seats will falter as demand for oil outstrips the available supply.
Don't take my word for it. BP's global figures verify it.
Go and check out Jim Kunstlers ClusterFuck Archives... and get clued up.
Wednesday, August 25, 2004
Peak Oil 101. For the benefit of Dr Cullen.
Oral questions in the house yesterday
Jeanette Fitzsimons: What does the Minister understand by the term
"peak oil", and when does he expect it to occur?
Hon Dr MICHAEL
CULLEN: I have to confess that, for once, the member has floored me; I do
not understand what is meant by the term "peak oil".
The fact that our Minister of Finance is completely and utterly unaware of the “peak oil” issue is absolutely astounding. By inference one can only conclude that this ignorance clearly demonstrates the current Government’s Energy politics are in total disarray.
It is clear from Cullen’s admission yesterday that the Labour Governments knowledge in regard to the very serious global energy issue of peak oil and all it’s geo-political complexities wouldn’t fill a rice-bubble.
Dr Cullen should resign immediately and the job should go to someone that is acutely aware of the geopolitics of energy – our entire existence as a nation depends on such knowledge.
Our global energy system, a massive complex network of production and distribution designed to meet the needs of the industrial world is failing. Production is only just meeting demand. As the developing world, transition economies like China, India, South Korea and Brazil continue to industrialise at a staggering rate no one, including the oil companies themselves have any idea how energy will be delivered to these countries. As OPEC’s president Purnomo Yusgiantoro commented recently “there is no more supply”. The OPEC nations are producing at peak capacity.
This ever widening gap between global demand for energy and our ability to meet it is beginning to emerge as a serious threat to global stability and will shape most certainly shape the future. Energy security goes well beyond sabotage and dirty bombs, it is the ability to meet immediate energy demand.
Yet the emerging supply demand imbalance is only the beginning of the peak oil problem. According to the latest BP statistics* the world is already losing a million barrels of oil per day to depletion, twice the rate of two years ago.
For the benefit of Dr Cullen, global peak oil is the point at which maximum global production of oil is reached. The production curve looks like a bell curve, once at the top of the curve we move into downside. On the down side it becomes more expensive and less productive to pump oil out of the ground. Prior experience in the US (peak 1971) the UK (peak 1999), Australia (peak 2000) verifies this trend. The world is currently at the peak of the global production curve.
How the Government can possibly plan an infrastructure, an economy, a future for New Zealand without this knowledge beyond belief. The desire to continue with plans to spend billions of dollars on road systems, including $415 million to improve Wellington roads PowerLess NZ repeats is an economic atrocity, for which those responsible for such gross wastage of public funds should be held fully accountable.
*A summary of the BP Statistical review of World Energy can be found http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/082304_million_depletion.shtml
PowerLess NZ 25 August 2004
PowerLess NZ is a growing group of scientists, energy analysts and concerned citizens whose principle objectives are to alert both Government and the general public to New Zealand’s looming energy crisis. Our aim is to support development of renewable energy resources at both a private and public level, as well as encourage a firm move away from dependence upon fossil fuels. More information about global peak oil and resource depletion can be found at http://www.oilcrash.com/
Monday, August 23, 2004
A crisis forms a lethal positive-feedback loop: the worse our problems become, the more likely we are to act instead of think. The less we think, the worse our problems become. Jay Hanson, 1998.
The vast majority of New Zealand politicians currently resemble a rabble of knee-jerking hillbilly square dancers. The reason for this is in part because New Zealand, in fact Western democracies by and large are obsessed with reification, tradition and habit. It is better to act than it is to think. Take for example the oxymoronic term, the so called “knowledge economy”. Remove the rhetoric and hype behind the term and one quickly realises it for what it is, a drive to merely exploit finite resources at a even quicker rate in order to promote economic growth. It seems the term wisdom has long since parted company with knowledge.
The enormity of New Zealand’s imminent energy problem and it’s associated social and economic repercussion’s exacerbates the bias Jay Hanson describes above. As the situation becomes increasingly dire politicians barrel down the path of farcical adhocery.
The desire to build a gas-fired electricity power station just as the Maui gas-field is about to run out is the consummate example. This gross mistake will eventually result in either escalating reliance on expensive imported energy or a white elephant. As the world faces the prospect of moving into the depletion side of the fossil fuel production curve, New Zealand politicians are intent on ignoring the problem and continue to build and plan a multibillion-dollar fossil fuel dependant infrastructure.
PowerLess NZ argue that the underlying cause of Beehive delusion is the unquestionable doctrine of continuous and unlimited economic growth. New Zealand politicians believe they can fix the problem of poverty with growth, apparently the answer to some people’s inability participate fully in a consumptive market is more consumption. Growth is a substitute for equality of income. It is a flawed dogma that provides a convenient smoke screen for weak politician’s inability to answer the unpleasant questions. So long as there is growth there is hope for the cattle-class.
One of the unpleasant questions as yet wholly unanswered by New Zealand politicians is “how do you propose to address the issue of natural resource depletion, in particular the issue of peak oil which will kick in within the next few years?”. Unfortunately neither the market economy nor technology can answer this question. PowerLess NZ urge all New Zealanders interested in their futures to ask your politician this question.
Of course politicians will tell you economic growth is the panacea for such problems. A truly bizarre hypothesis. Economic growth equals increased demand, increased demand results in resources (such as oil and natural gas) being depleted at quicker rate. The problem of natural resource depletion cannot be solved by depleting the resource at a quicker rate. We urge all New Zealand politicians to think carefully before they act.
Powerless NZ
23 August 2004
PowerLess NZ is a growing group of scientists, energy analysts and concerned citizens whose principle objectives are to alert both Government and the general public to New Zealand’s looming energy crisis. Our aim is to support development of renewable energy resources at both a private and public level, as well as encourage a firm move away from dependence upon fossil fuels.More information about global peak oil and resource depletion can be found at http://www.oilcrash.com/
The vast majority of New Zealand politicians currently resemble a rabble of knee-jerking hillbilly square dancers. The reason for this is in part because New Zealand, in fact Western democracies by and large are obsessed with reification, tradition and habit. It is better to act than it is to think. Take for example the oxymoronic term, the so called “knowledge economy”. Remove the rhetoric and hype behind the term and one quickly realises it for what it is, a drive to merely exploit finite resources at a even quicker rate in order to promote economic growth. It seems the term wisdom has long since parted company with knowledge.
The enormity of New Zealand’s imminent energy problem and it’s associated social and economic repercussion’s exacerbates the bias Jay Hanson describes above. As the situation becomes increasingly dire politicians barrel down the path of farcical adhocery.
The desire to build a gas-fired electricity power station just as the Maui gas-field is about to run out is the consummate example. This gross mistake will eventually result in either escalating reliance on expensive imported energy or a white elephant. As the world faces the prospect of moving into the depletion side of the fossil fuel production curve, New Zealand politicians are intent on ignoring the problem and continue to build and plan a multibillion-dollar fossil fuel dependant infrastructure.
PowerLess NZ argue that the underlying cause of Beehive delusion is the unquestionable doctrine of continuous and unlimited economic growth. New Zealand politicians believe they can fix the problem of poverty with growth, apparently the answer to some people’s inability participate fully in a consumptive market is more consumption. Growth is a substitute for equality of income. It is a flawed dogma that provides a convenient smoke screen for weak politician’s inability to answer the unpleasant questions. So long as there is growth there is hope for the cattle-class.
One of the unpleasant questions as yet wholly unanswered by New Zealand politicians is “how do you propose to address the issue of natural resource depletion, in particular the issue of peak oil which will kick in within the next few years?”. Unfortunately neither the market economy nor technology can answer this question. PowerLess NZ urge all New Zealanders interested in their futures to ask your politician this question.
Of course politicians will tell you economic growth is the panacea for such problems. A truly bizarre hypothesis. Economic growth equals increased demand, increased demand results in resources (such as oil and natural gas) being depleted at quicker rate. The problem of natural resource depletion cannot be solved by depleting the resource at a quicker rate. We urge all New Zealand politicians to think carefully before they act.
Powerless NZ
23 August 2004
PowerLess NZ is a growing group of scientists, energy analysts and concerned citizens whose principle objectives are to alert both Government and the general public to New Zealand’s looming energy crisis. Our aim is to support development of renewable energy resources at both a private and public level, as well as encourage a firm move away from dependence upon fossil fuels.More information about global peak oil and resource depletion can be found at http://www.oilcrash.com/
Monday, June 14, 2004
The end of the world as we know it...
The economic Holy Grail for western nations including New Zealand is growth. Our lifestyles and living conditions, education and health-care all supposedly improve when growth is positive. What fuels growth literally is energy. Without energy there would simply be no growth, apart from human input, energy is both entirely sufficient and necessary for economic growth.
Accounting for almost half of all New Zealands energy use is oil. However there is an emerging realisation that the growth in demand for oil is almost at the point where the supply cannot keep up. The age of fossil fuels is about to peak after which production will slide into irrecoverable decline. I’m not talking about oil running out any day soon, what I’m saying is that the exploding global demand for oil is about to outpace supply with dire consequences.
The Peak Oil problem as it is termed is well supported by scientists, geologists and a few brave politicians. US Vice President Dick Cheney some time ago confirmed a two to three percent annual growth in demand contrasted conservatively with a three percent decline in production from existing reserves. John Anderson, Australias deputy Prime Minister only last week claimed on national radio, it is likely that in the next few short years global oil production will peak. Dr Colin Campbell founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas suggests that conventional oil production will peak about 2005, followed by all oil about five years later.
If Dick Cheneys figures are correct and there is plenty of evidence to suggest they are, by 2010 the world will require somewhere in the region of 50 million more barrels per day. Unfortunately there is currently no 50 million barrels extra and it is unlikely that we will find the shortfall.
There simply have been no significant oil finds since discovery of the large Middle Eastern fields in the 60s. In fact we are globally consuming oil at a rate of almost five barrels for every one discovered. So what can New Zealand expect as this scenario unfolds? Any economist will tell you the result of demand exceeding supply is simple, the price will increase. With an expectation of growth in our economy we can expect to wear a one to five percent shortfall in oil before we begin experiencing a recession. A five to ten percent shortfall will see New Zealand descend into economic depression. At current rates of global demand within 10 years we conservatively might see shortfall of about twenty to twenty five percent assuming a peak around 2005.
Of course the social and economic impacts of this event occurring are profound. The age of industry fuelled by cheap energy it seems will begin to recede into history and life is likely to become, to borrow a phrase from Thomas Hobbes, “poor, nasty, brutish and short.”
One might wonder - why aren’t our politicians discussing this, why isn’t something being done? The reality of facing peak oil and its impacts involve a significant rearrangement of our belief systems. It is likely that politicians find it just to difficult to face, they are simply ignoring it hoping it will go away. Aldous Huxley reminds us however “Facts do not cease to be facts simply because they are ignored.” Or perhaps as one politician said to me and I quote
“The point is not that the events will not occur, but that the kinds preparations and precautions that a democratic government can take before the risk becomes so imminent that everyone recognises it, are so limited as to be a waste of time or worse.”
Being an eternal optimist I disagree. Iceland’s people and their Government have made the commitment to become independent of oil within a couple of decades, any preparations we make now will pay off in the future. New Zealand could be well placed to weather such a storm but only if we first acknowledge the problem. Preparations from there on in will involve re-arranging our society such that it is not dependent on oil. The last thing we should be doing of course is committing billions of dollars to roading systems that in all likely-hood will empty of drivers around about the time they are completed. Of course discussing the issue and raising public awareness will allow a debate to begin, the sooner the better. Whatever we do, we certainly ought to heed Dr Campbell’s solemn warning, “deal with reality, or reality will deal with you”.
c. Steve McKinlay, 2004
The economic Holy Grail for western nations including New Zealand is growth. Our lifestyles and living conditions, education and health-care all supposedly improve when growth is positive. What fuels growth literally is energy. Without energy there would simply be no growth, apart from human input, energy is both entirely sufficient and necessary for economic growth.
Accounting for almost half of all New Zealands energy use is oil. However there is an emerging realisation that the growth in demand for oil is almost at the point where the supply cannot keep up. The age of fossil fuels is about to peak after which production will slide into irrecoverable decline. I’m not talking about oil running out any day soon, what I’m saying is that the exploding global demand for oil is about to outpace supply with dire consequences.
The Peak Oil problem as it is termed is well supported by scientists, geologists and a few brave politicians. US Vice President Dick Cheney some time ago confirmed a two to three percent annual growth in demand contrasted conservatively with a three percent decline in production from existing reserves. John Anderson, Australias deputy Prime Minister only last week claimed on national radio, it is likely that in the next few short years global oil production will peak. Dr Colin Campbell founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas suggests that conventional oil production will peak about 2005, followed by all oil about five years later.
If Dick Cheneys figures are correct and there is plenty of evidence to suggest they are, by 2010 the world will require somewhere in the region of 50 million more barrels per day. Unfortunately there is currently no 50 million barrels extra and it is unlikely that we will find the shortfall.
There simply have been no significant oil finds since discovery of the large Middle Eastern fields in the 60s. In fact we are globally consuming oil at a rate of almost five barrels for every one discovered. So what can New Zealand expect as this scenario unfolds? Any economist will tell you the result of demand exceeding supply is simple, the price will increase. With an expectation of growth in our economy we can expect to wear a one to five percent shortfall in oil before we begin experiencing a recession. A five to ten percent shortfall will see New Zealand descend into economic depression. At current rates of global demand within 10 years we conservatively might see shortfall of about twenty to twenty five percent assuming a peak around 2005.
Of course the social and economic impacts of this event occurring are profound. The age of industry fuelled by cheap energy it seems will begin to recede into history and life is likely to become, to borrow a phrase from Thomas Hobbes, “poor, nasty, brutish and short.”
One might wonder - why aren’t our politicians discussing this, why isn’t something being done? The reality of facing peak oil and its impacts involve a significant rearrangement of our belief systems. It is likely that politicians find it just to difficult to face, they are simply ignoring it hoping it will go away. Aldous Huxley reminds us however “Facts do not cease to be facts simply because they are ignored.” Or perhaps as one politician said to me and I quote
“The point is not that the events will not occur, but that the kinds preparations and precautions that a democratic government can take before the risk becomes so imminent that everyone recognises it, are so limited as to be a waste of time or worse.”
Being an eternal optimist I disagree. Iceland’s people and their Government have made the commitment to become independent of oil within a couple of decades, any preparations we make now will pay off in the future. New Zealand could be well placed to weather such a storm but only if we first acknowledge the problem. Preparations from there on in will involve re-arranging our society such that it is not dependent on oil. The last thing we should be doing of course is committing billions of dollars to roading systems that in all likely-hood will empty of drivers around about the time they are completed. Of course discussing the issue and raising public awareness will allow a debate to begin, the sooner the better. Whatever we do, we certainly ought to heed Dr Campbell’s solemn warning, “deal with reality, or reality will deal with you”.
c. Steve McKinlay, 2004
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