Sunday, June 08, 2008

A historic moment.

As many of you know, I have been talking about oil and our global economy, for a few years now. Many of the events now unfolding in the face of complete disbelief to many people are right here in this blog. In the last few days we have seen the highest single day spike of oil since it was first pumped out of the ground.

It's timely to compile a few links to my articles/rantings/predictions - from the beginning of this blog.

Suburbias Looming Fire Sale - 2004 (and of course this has now started)
People are deluded if they think the way we live can continue indefinately. More suburban sprawl and housing estates, DVD's, Plasma screen TV's, never ending ships with full of imported Cherokee Jeeps... this is all gonna end - soonish.

During 2004 I invented a "Lobby Group" to get the word out. Here's an early PowerLess NZ press release.
New Zealand politicians are intent on ignoring the problem and continue to build and plan a multibillion-dollar fossil fuel dependant infrastructure.

All the PowerLess NZ Releases I wrote are here.
Here is a quote of mine from 2005.
The credit-card-fed/mortgage orgy will not be sustainable once the hand-brake of late 80s like interest rates bite as oil prices go through the canopy.

I predicted Stagflation back in April 2004. Here is the wikipedia explanation of Stagflation.
Economic growth necessarily depends on a cheap energy subsidy, to grow economically one needs to increase energy consumption. As the price of oil continues to creep upwards the spectre of oil-shock induced stagflation looms.

An essay I wrote for the NZ Futures Trust.
The article was called Peak Oil: An Austere Future - I hate to say "told you so" but unfortunately, it seems to be the case.

Once the peak does occur the price for a commodity for which demand now supplants supply will result inevitably in lower or negative growth.

If you've only just started thinking about this - look around you. Look at what's happening, and look how long I've been talking about it. It's going to get worse. Get to grips with the reality as soon as you can.

1 comment:

Natakomi said...

So, I guess you believe that we will not be able to catch up to demand.

Free Market Economists think otherwise. They say, when the price of a commodity goes up, consumers reduce is consumption and begin to shift to a different source.

I understand, and agree with your viewpoint, that there is no such fuel in sight, which is as much versatile & flexible as oil.

This planet would surely suffer, for a few years, until we change our ways, and Adapt to these permanent changes.

There are few things that make humans apart from animals. One of them is the ability to Adapt.